Americans Think They'll Be Out of Work and Are Looking for Jobs at Highest Rate in 10 Years - Ny Fed Survey

More Americans are looking for jobs and unemployment worries are at their highest level in a decade, according to a new survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday.

According to the NY Fed, the average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed in the next four months reached 4.4% in July, the highest in the survey's 10-year history. This compared to 3.9% a year ago. The expected likelihood of moving to a new employer also increased, rising to 11.6% last month from the 10.6% seen in July 2023.

More respondents are also actively on the job hunt, with 28.4% saying they've been searching for a new job over the past four weeks — the highest level since March 2014 and an increase from 19.4% in July 2023.

The survey, which also noted decreased satisfaction with wage compensation, non-wage benefits, and promotion opportunities at respondents’ current jobs, comes as the Federal Reserve weighs 

 recent labor market weakness with the unemployment rate now at 4.3%. Investors will also be closely watching expected annual revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which could knock up to a million jobs off previously reported job growth over the last year.

Economists and strategists have warned any further deterioration of the labor market would likely have a negative spillover effect to markets and beyond.

"The problem is that we continue to see weakness in the labor market and we think that that's going to ultimately be what drives this market lower," Ahmed Riesgo, chief investment officer at Insigneo, told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday.

"We know that the US consumer is doing OK, but the US consumer is doing OK because they still have a job. The second that the employment market flips from one of surplus to one of deficit, which is something that we think we're rapidly nearing, we think the US consumer, unfortunately, will falter."

Recent data, however, has painted a more constructive picture of the economy.

Consumer prices have continued to ease closer to the Fed's 2% inflation target. Positive retail sales data for the month of July showed the consumer is still spending. Consumer confidence is rebounding. And recent filings for initial unemployment benefits have fallen more than expected.

"We're coming off unusual lows [in the unemployment rate] following a very unusual time during the pandemic," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday.

"A lot of the rules that some of these so-called forward-looking investors use aren't really going to work this time because the economy is in a very different place."

Given those indications, which signal the US economy could be entering a "Goldilocks scenario" where growth expands while inflation retreats, traders are looking ahead to Jackson Hole for clues of what could come next.

"I think [the Fed] will have to certainly move in terms of the commentary," ING chief international economist James Knightley told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. "So I think it will be, one, acknowledging inflation has slowed, perhaps a little more quickly than they had been thinking, and that the jobs market may be slowing a little more rapidly than they had been believing would be the most likely case."

Markets are currently pricing in a nearly 100% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by the end of its September meeting. The odds of a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut are now split roughly 70/30 after 50/50 odds placed last week, per the CME FedWatch Tool.