New report examines how rising interest rates have impacted home prices in Canada

With the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes aimed at fighting inflation, the housing market in Canada experienced a slight drop in prices, according to a new report from Century 21 Canada.

The data came from the Century 21 Canada’s annual “Price per Square Foot survey,” which compares the price per square foot of properties sold between January 1 and June 30 of the current year to the same period in previous years.

According to the survey, the big city centres such as Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal are experiencing lower condo prices, while smaller markets such as small Ontario cities, and Atlantic Canada are seeing significant price-per-square-foot growth, particularly in single-family homes.

“We knew that the market had to come down from the highs of the last few years, and we’re now fully seeing the effects of the interest rate growth that started last year,”

Century 21 Canada executive vice president Todd Shyiak said in a press release. “But we have to look at these numbers within the larger context. The fact that we haven’t dipped to pre-pandemic levels shows that homes are still in demand, and we continue to see growth in smaller markets as more families seek a lower cost of living.”

The report also found that prices hit their lowest points in January but showed a steady increase over the spring months. However, despite the upward trend, many markets were unable to recover to their 2022 peak prices reached before the interest rate hikes started.

Last month, the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to five per cent, the highest it’s been since 2001.

Breaking down the data regionally, British Columbia experienced the most significant price decline among the provinces. However, the prices have generally remained at or above the levels seen in 2021. Interestingly, the Victoria region in British Columbia was an exception and witnessed growth in real estate prices.

In Ontario, various changes were observed in real estate prices, ranging from declines to increases across the province. Condos experienced a 16 percent price decrease but still remained expensive at a price per square foot of $1,013. On the other hand, cities like Niagara Falls and Cambridge saw significant double-digit growth in the prices of single-family homes. This trend was consistent with cities farther away from the Greater Toronto Area experiencing growth in single-family home prices.

Alberta has experienced the most growth in real estate prices over the past year, with consistent increases in price per square foot in most markets. The growth was steady and moderate throughout the first half of 2023. Even in regions that saw declines, prices did not drop below 2020 levels. Calgary witnessed a 5.81 percent increase in single-family home prices and a 9.82 percent increase in condo prices while nearby Okotoks saw a substantial 14 percent increase in condo prices.

However, Edmonton condos were an exception and experienced a decrease in prices.

In Atlantic Canada, prices have continued to rise. Detached homes in Fredericton, Moncton, and St. John all saw double-digit increases. However, condo prices in Halifax saw the smallest increase in the region after a sharp double-digit increase last year.

When it comes to Montreal, the city experienced a decline in the prices of condos and detached homes. However, the decline was modest and remained in the single digits.

The real estate market in the Manitoba and Saskatchewan has remained relatively stable, with minor gains and losses observed across the board. In Saskatoon, detached homes have the highest price per square foot at $344, while Winnipeg, Brandon, and Regina follow the trend with their detached single-family homes priced at $291, $276, and $275 per square foot, respectively.