Oil prices retreat after climb in US crude stockpiles expected

Oil prices lost ground on Wednesday after sources said industry data would show an increase in U.S. crude stockpiles, but stronger refining margins limited losses. Brent futures fell 52 cents or 0.7% to $76.48 a barrel by 0747 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 54 cents or 0.5% to $72.78 a barrel.

The declines come after three days of gains during which Brent climbed 3.6% and WTI rose 3.7%. "This week's moves on the WTI crude so far seem to be profit-taking activities from bearish short-term speculators as they await today's US CPI print," OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said in an email.

WTI crude is still trading below its 20-day and 200-day moving averages which might act as a brake on recent bullish momentum, Wong said. But he added this would conditional on U.S. CPI not offering any surprises. U.S. consumer price index data will be released at 1330 GMT on Wednesday. Expectations are for a slight slowdown in January's core inflation print to an annual 3.1% and for the headline number to hold steady at 2.9%.

A stable outlook for CPI will in turn lead to a stable outlook for interest rates and little change in estimates for oil demand. Crude oil stockpiles in the U.S., the world's biggest oil producer and consumer, rose by 9.4 million barrels in the week ending February 7, according to sources citing American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday.

Gasoline inventories fell by 2.51 million barrels, and distillate stocks dropped by 590,000 barrels, the sources said the API data showed. [API/S]

Data from the Energy Information Administration will be released later on Wednesday. [EIA/S]

The EIA increased its estimate for U.S. crude production while leaving its demand forecast unchanged. It now expects U.S. crude oil output to average 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025, up from its prior estimate of 13.55 million bpd.

But stronger refining margins limited price losses overall. Complex refining margins in Singapore clawed back January losses, averaging at $3 a barrel or more in the past week, LSEG pricing data showed.

"Prompt refinery margins are healthy, reversing the negative margin trends from previous month. There is strong demand for refineries to run hard, particularly as we head into the turnaround season in northwest Europe and Asia," said June Goh, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities.