Land saturation pushes property development towards Dubai’s peripheral areas

Land saturation and limited affordability in Dubai’s core residential locations have pushed property development towards peripheral areas, a report by property consultancy Savills has found.

Prominent micro-markets located along the Al Khail Road corridor, including Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC), Dubailand, Damac Hills 2, The Valley and Damac Lagoons, accounted for 55 per cent of total transaction volumes and 56 per cent of all newly launched residential units, Savills said in its first quarter report for the Dubai residential market.

“The limited availability of land in the city’s core residential areas, such as Business Bay, Downtown Dubai and Dubai Marina,

has driven development towards peripheral areas,” according to Savills’ research. “These areas are witnessing increasing buyer interest, offering comparatively attractive price points and a mix of product offerings.”

Approximately 8,000 units were added to the city’s residential stock during the quarter and about 32,000 residential units are slated to be delivered in the remainder of 2025, the consultancy estimated.

Savills anticipates a “healthy stream of completions” through to 2028 as the balance between supply and demand evolves.

Sustained demand from a growing population and heightened investor interest are driving property sales in Dubai. The property market has also been benefiting from government initiatives, such as residency permits for retired and remote workers, expansion of the 10-year golden visa programme and overall growth in the UAE’s economy on diversification efforts.

By the end of March, Dubai’s population had risen to 3.92 million, with 89,695 new residents added in just the first three months of the year, an average of approximately 1,000 people per day. The net population increase for 2024 was 170,478 people, averaging less than 500 per day, real estate consultancy ValuStrat said in a report earlier this month.

The Savills report found that Dubai recorded a 23 per cent annual increase in transaction volumes during the first quarter of the year. Apartments dominated market activity, accounting for 76 per cent of all transactions, while villa and townhouse transactions rose from 18 per cent in the previous quarter to 24 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.

Off-plan sales represented 69 per cent of all deals in the first quarter, the data showed. The ready market, comprising transactions in completed and handed-over projects, accounted for 13,000 transactions from January to the end of March.

Within the ready market, apartment sales accounted for 81 per cent of transactions in this period, reflecting the “continued preference for apartments in the market amid availability and affordability pressures”, the Savills report explained.

“The residential market witnessed robust supply, with more than 30,000 units launched during the quarter, most of which were apartments. This figure is more than double the volume recorded in the same period last year, as developers capitalised on strong market demand,” said Rachael Kennerley, director of research at Savills.

Apartments accounted for 79 per cent of new launches. Villa and townhouse units accounted for approximately 21 per cent of all new supply during the period.

“Developers have increasingly introduced smaller unit sizes in this segment, aiming to strike a balance between meeting end-user demand and addressing growing affordability constraints in the market,” the report said.

Transactions valued at Dh5 million ($1.36 million) and above accounted for 8 per cent of total activity in the first quarter. Regardless of affordability pressures, driven by elevated loan-to-value thresholds, inflation, higher living costs and rising capital values, demand in the higher price segments remains consistent, the consultancy said.

Dubai’s prime residential market continues to perform well, underpinned by Dubai’s sustained appeal for high-net-worth individuals, according to Savills.

More than 1,300 units were transacted at values exceeding the Dh10 million mark in the first quarter, marking a 31 per cent year-on-year increase. Contrary to the wider market, villas dominated prime transactions with 73 per cent of market share, the research found.

“Demand across the prime residential segment in Dubai has not simply sustained but strengthened. Amid tariff wars, geopolitical uncertainties and unpredictable tax environments, the world’s wealthy increasingly recognise Dubai’s appeal, and developers are rising to the occasion,” Andrew Cummings, head of residential agency at Savills, said.

“Villas in coveted locations, space and privacy are the preferred choice, but supply remains restricted for the time being.”

Looking ahead, the outlook for Dubai’s residential sector remains "optimistic", the consultancy projected. Amid global macroeconomic and political uncertainties, the emirate’s political stability, competitive regulatory landscape and business-friendly ecosystem are expected to support ongoing population and investment inflows, it said.

However, the development pipeline is significant and requires a balanced approach to supply and demand, Savills warned.